Two important articles co-authored by Peter Orszag, the director of the Congressional Budget Office.

The first emphasizes a point I’ve also tried to get at:

The long-term fiscal condition of the United States has been largely misdiagnosed. Despite all the attention paid to demographic challenges, such as the coming retirement of the baby-boom generation, our country’s financial health will in fact be determined primarily by the growth rate of per capita health care costs.

In other words, Social Security is not the big problem (and it’s not in “crisis,” Sen. Obama); it’s Medicare and Medicaid, and their problems are wrapped up in a general health-care crisis.

The second has a lot to say about controlling costs, and also explains succinctly, albeit in slightly obscure terms, why “consumer-directed” care, which is at the core of all the Republican plans, won’t work:

On the consumer side, higher deductibles would encourage patients to be more prudent in their use of services, but they also raise concerns about the financial burden on persons with major health problems. Furthermore, the concentration of health care spending among a relatively small percentage of the population with very high costs limits the effect on total spending of increased cost sharing for initial charges.

In short, making people pay more for things like doctors’ visits is going where the money isn’t. The big bucks go for big expenses like cardiac surgery — and either these things are paid for by insurance, or not at all.